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Top of Mind Thursday – April 17, 2025: A Rocky Ride
Remember the old Karate Kid movie? Mr. Miyagi teaches his young charge patience by having him detail a car: Wax on. Wax off. Wax on. Wax off.
That’s what the last couple of weeks have felt like: Tariffs on. Tariffs off. Tariffs big. Tariffs small. Chinese tariffs huge. Other countries? Still not sure.
The stock markets have been sharply up and down with each iteration, as well as rumors that President Trump would like to fire Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Markets up. Markets down.
Grocery prices have gone up—not down. Prices are cars are expected to go up significantly—as soon as we can figure out exactly what parts are American made and which are not. Computers and cell phones are exempt from tariffs for now. But that may change. Tariffs on. Tariffs off.
A number of leading economists believe what’s happening with these policies will plunge the US into a recession. Some believe that will drag down the rest of the free world.
However, there will be opportunities for some industries and players within them to succeed and perhaps even thrive in various economic scenarios. The problem is when things change so dramatically on an almost daily basis, it’s nearly impossible to develop a coherent strategy.
If things go up, we can do X. If they go down, we can do Y. But if they go up and down like a steep roller coaster, we’re likely to wind up with an upset stomach from all the twists and turns.
Human beings–like the stock market—don’t like continuous uncertainty. We need to develop a feeling for the bigger picture so we know what actions to take and what to avoid.
Those organizations that can help provide some sense of terra firma do a great service to their customers. Those that just wait for things to settle down may wind up needing more than an airsick bag.
Check out our marketing leadership podcasts and the video trailer for my book, Marketing Above the Noise: Achieve Strategic Advantage with Marketing that Matters.
.
Let us help your business rise to the top.
linda@popky.com
(650) 281-4854
www.leverage2market.com
Top of Mind Thursday – April 10, 2025: Let My People Go
Passover, one of the most important holidays in the Jewish calendar, starts this weekend.
This holiday commemorates the exodus of the Jewish people from Egypt after 400 years of slavery. It’s a time when we traditionally celebrate our freedom.
But this year feels different.
This is the second Passover when we still have hostages held in captivity in Gaza, about half of whom are believed to still be alive. But this year, after hearing the stories of those who have been released, we know much more about the horrendous conditions in which these men are being held.
We now know they are being tortured and brutalized, sexually assaulted, starved, and abused—both mentally and physically. We now know that this abuse is often coming from civilians in Gaza who are holding hostages—not just from Hamas operatives. We now know that the only starvation happening in Gaza now is among Jewish hostages.
The war in Gaza started up again recently after hostage release negotiations failed. No one is happy to see this happen. Innocent people will die, and the angst and suffering will continue. Yet, the answer—just like thousands of year go—is simple: Let my people go.
The Bible says Moses brought this message to Pharaoh multiple times, but Pharaoh was stubborn. It took 10 plagues of increasingly devastating intensity for him to agree to let his Jewish slaves go free. Even then, he changed his mind and followed them to the Red Sea, which miraculously parted to let the Jewish people escape, with the Egyptians unable to follow.
For 18 months, the cry among Israelis, Jews and supporters of decency and morality around the world has been, “Bring them home now.” But that puts the onus on the rescuers, not the captors. The message to the world should be clear.
Let our people go. Now.
Check out our marketing leadership podcasts and the video trailer for my book, Marketing Above the Noise: Achieve Strategic Advantage with Marketing that Matters.
.
Let us help your business rise to the top.
linda@popky.com
(650) 281-4854
www.leverage2market.com
Top of Mind Thursday – April 3, 2025: Liberation
President Donald Trump has told us numerous times that “tariff” is one of his favorite words. This week he showed us in spades exactly what he meant.
As of yesterday, “Liberation Day,” Trump imposed significant tariffs on just about all of the US’s trading partners. The list includes 65 countries, with rates as high as 50% on some. The move is estimated to erase 125 years of global trade, immediately raise prices by the equivalent of a year’s worth of inflation, and cut economic growth this year by half.
It will also impact auto manufacturing—despite the decades-old North America Free Trade Agreement, which created manufacturing alliances among Canada, the US, and Mexico, and resulted in cars being built across all three countries.
The formula appears to be based on a bizarre formula: the ratio of the US trade deficit with each country targeted, divided by the total US imports from that same country. And it considers goods only, not services (the US runs a trade SURPLUS on services with many countries).
The stock market reacted with the worst drop since the pandemic. World markets are in an uproar. Consumers and manufacturers alike are upset. It’s not clear at all who benefits from this. Or what exactly is being liberated from whom (unless it’s our money being liberated from our banking and investment accounts!).
The problem is this is not our great-grandparents’ economy. What worked in an isolationist regime at the turn of the 20th century in the early days of the industrial revolution, is unlikely to be successful in today’s global, integrated, digital economy.
For better or worse, the products we buy come from global partners. The chances of this stunt resulting in large swaths of manufacturing relocating back to the US are slim to none. In fact, other countries are already trying to source products from non-US suppliers.
It’s possible some of these measures will be rolled back in short order, once the consequences of the impact becomes clear. The problem is that doesn’t mean we can easily go back to a global economic environment that works effectively.
Consider a driver who is upset at someone else taking up “his” space on the freeway, so he purposely plows into him. The other vehicle may be irreversibly damaged, and perhaps will be unlikely to show up in the “wrong” lane again any time soon.
But to do this, the antagonist will significantly damage not just the other vehicle, but his car as well. Furthermore, the shock of the collision is likely to cause severe whiplash at a minimum and perhaps more significant permanent injuries to the first driver as well.
Unfortunately, because of the severe tariffs that have recently “liberated” his country, the antagonist who caused the accident may find it both difficult and expensive to repair his vehicle (or buy a new one, if the damage is significant).
As Janis Joplin sang in “Me and Bobby McGee,” Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.
Such is the price of tariff “liberation.”
Check out our marketing leadership podcasts and the video trailer for my book, Marketing Above the Noise: Achieve Strategic Advantage with Marketing that Matters.
.
Let us help your business rise to the top.
linda@popky.com
(650) 281-4854
www.leverage2market.com
Top of Mind Thursday – March 27, 2025: A Harmless Little Chat
This week, we learned that details of a pending US military operation were shared by senior US officials over Signal, an insecure messaging app—among a long list of people that included a journalist.
The full story is still unfolding on this incident, but it appears at this point to have been a major faux pas.
Not only could this have compromised an in-progress military op, but one of the people included on the message trail was following the conversation while in Russia (where eavesdropping and spying on foreign dignitaries are to be expected). US partners are upset, because their intelligence input may have been compromised. And inadvertently adding a journalist to this type of conversation is a major no-no.
Mistakes happen, and this could have all blown over quickly had the administration admitted they made a mistake and it would take steps to ensure it didn’t happen again.
But that’s not what happened. Instead, the key players involved (including the Secretary of Defense) tried to deflect blame:
No classified information was disclosed (texts show that was not the case).
The journalist must have added himself to the group (not possible), or he made this up (not the case, based on what was disclosed).
And even, from Donald Trump: The app itself must be defective (Nope, the app worked exactly as it was supposed to).
This administration is turning the US government upside down and inside out in an attempt to root out fraud and eliminate wasteful spending. They’ve purposely brought in people with little to no government experience to change things up.
That’s fine and good, but there are processes and procedures in place for a reason. Just like you don’t fire the people who guard the nuclear stockpile or manage air traffic control, you don’t ignore national security protocols put in place for all of our safety.
Perhaps it’s time for the president to call his team in for a chat about how to manage critical information in the future. But this time, don’t have that discussion over an insecure messaging platform.
Check out our marketing leadership podcasts and the video trailer for my book, Marketing Above the Noise: Achieve Strategic Advantage with Marketing that Matters.
.
Let us help your business rise to the top.
linda@popky.com
(650) 281-4854
www.leverage2market.com